"Is the EV viable"?

[SVTVNM]

Mods if better linked to a previous thread on similar topic I posted some time ago, go for it.

http://ninemsn.carpoint.com.au/news/...v-viable-19912

Tesla's float has been an early success, but not everyone's sure EVs can go the distance
Britain's Institution of Engineering and Technology has its doubts about electric vehicles -- but it's being drowned out in the marketing din.

The Institution has dealt a quiet blow to the auto industry's push to persuade consumers to look towards EVs. An article in its June journal declares that limitations to battery development will likely hobble the market penetration of electric vehicles for many years to come.

This article is published against a backdrop of high profile publicity for EVs -- the subject of the most powerful marketing push in years. Electric sports car pioneer Tesla's recent NASDAQ float has met with a massive burst of investor enthusiasm, while Nissan, with more than 20,000 orders worldwide for its Leaf, is tooling up to fulfil orders for up to 500,000 of the affordable all-electric hatch by 2012. The Leaf touches down in US showrooms later this year with a base price of $32,780.

Despite the buzz generated by car makers, the UK Institution of Engineering and Technology says consumer perceptions continue to put EVs well behind conventional combustion engines for performance and range, and not without reason, according to the story in its journal. The article asks some sticky questions about the limitations forced on car makers and drivers by battery technology, asserting little has changed on the matter of range since 1910, and with no obvious solutions on the horizon.

To put EVs in perspective against their conventionally powered counterparts, the Institution says it would take a battery pack larger than the entire car, weighing about 1.5 tonnes and costing over $200,000 to deliver the 600km drivers currently get from a standard model Ford Focus or Volkswagen Golf in a mix of driving conditions and at speeds of up to 110 km/h.

Putting it that way, it does appear the industry has a way to go yet.

The Institution lists three main problem areas casting a shadow on the viability of EVs, all of which are complex enough to ensure it will be some time before a ready solution is found:

1. Battery technology is the laggard of the electronics industry. While the discipline has seen performance increases of about 10,000 percent in the past 35 years, battery performance has only increased 500 too 600 percent over the entire century. Making EVs viable in the minds of consumers presents the battery industry with a serious catch-up challenge: making that kind of progress again, but in a decade rather than another century.

2. The truth bomb ticking away in range claims about the industry's current great hope -- lithium-ion technology. Manufacturers base their claims on tests running batteries from 100 percent charge to zero. Such usage patterns seriously compromise Li-ion life expectancy. For the battery to have a lifespan acceptable to consumers, charge levels need to be kept between a 20 percent floor and an 80 percent ceiling.

3. Multiple issues with charging. Filling a battery from a domestic power outlet is a slow business -- the Institution suggests around 13 hours on average. Constant recharge-discharge cycles compromise Li-ion's functional capacity, and the consequences of doing this on high-voltage rapid-charge outlets have not yet seen anything like the empirical studies required for anyone to make any guarantees. According to the Institution, it might be a decade before a "true picture in a real life environment" emerges. This, it says, casts serious doubts on the warranties they might be able to offer on what is the costliest component of any EV.

While it's safe to expect cost reductions over the next decade, the Institution says, EVs will remain "significantly more expensive and heavier" than conventional cars and will remain cruelled by significant range shortfalls. Adding to this the likelihood that over that time they will draw most of their power from non-renewable sources, EVs "could actually contribute more CO2 to the environment than a current high efficiency diesel model".

Not that you'd know any of this looking at the numbers under TSLA, Tesla's stock code on the NASDAQ. Across the Atlantic it's all sunshine and smiles with the EV world wunderkind's shares going hyper-bull with a 41 per cent surge from US$17 to $23.89 a share in its first day's trading -- decidedly at odds with the rest of the market in an otherwise bleak day which saw the NASDAQ down 3.85 percent and the Dow falling 2.65 percent -- and during a period in which dozens of other IPOs have been cancelled.

Tesla's early success should come as no surprise, with pre-float buy-ins from kingmakers like Daimler and Toyota and plenty of encouragement from a federal administration working to put a million or more EVs and PHEVs on American roads by 2015. Tesla's projected contribution to that goal earned it US$465 million in Department of Energy loans.

That kind of imprimatur suggests that regardless of the Institution's misgivings, there are plenty of people out there determined to make EVs a day-to-day life reality, by hook or by crook, with gritted teeth, white knuckles -- whatever it takes.

If there's a flaw in the UK Institution's logic, it lies in its failure to take into account the possibility that in time consumers can be persuaded to change their habits to suit changing times. That's not beyond the bounds of possibility with the kind of impetus the EV industry is getting now.

Tesla founder Elon Musk is betting everything he has on it -- including profits on the US$112 million revenues from his company's existing product, the Roadster. The losses Tesla has recorded to date are voluntary, he says, with the company sinking what would otherwise be profit, as well as the US$226 million reported to the SEC at the end of day one, back into getting the mass market Model S sedan (pictured with the Roadster) into production.

Automotive News reports analysts don't share Musk's total confidence in the company, given tooling changes at one of its major suppliers ensures zero production for most of 2011 and into 2012, when the Model S arrives.

At this point, however, their doubts are drowned out in the investor buzz.

[burnz]

"Is the EV viable?"

in a word yes.
there is a demand, it will work for city dwellers, the techno will improve.

[aussie muscle]

i think once auto manufacturers and investors start putting real dollars into battery research it'll come in leaps and bounds. the electric car hasn't really ever been pushed for development like the ICE.
mostly tho, the electric car doesn't stack up. (they are good for drag racing tho)

[nstg8a]

id use one in a flash, i drive 4kms eachway to walk, be perfect for an ev.

my xf barely warms up by the time im at work lol

[mik]

still only good for short distance, batterys still suck.

[wrongwaynorris]

People need to watch the film / documentary " Who Killed The Electric Car " . Would clear up a lot of myths and misconceptions about the Electric Car . There is a classic line in the film where an opponent says it will not suit everyone ( a fair statement ) little did they know just what they had set themselves up for though as the proponent responded by saying and I'm paraphrasing here " Yes that's true it will only suit somewhere in the region of 90% of the community "

[TheInterceptor]

Our power grid barley copes with peoples heaters, let alone have peoples ev's plugged in.. lotsa blackouts already, least thats round my area.

That aside it would be perfect for some, and unrealistic for others. So who knows which way its headin...

[nstg8a]

is it the volt that uses a small i.c.e solely as a generator for its battery pack?

i reckon that will be the best option until battery tech improves to the point where it is as capable as current engine technology.

[Raptor]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

id use one in a flash, i drive 4kms eachway to walk, be perfect for an ev.

my xf barely warms up by the time im at work lol

"...4kms eachway to walk..."

You mean work but I think you should be walking

Yes, EV's have their place. Bring em on.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by Raptor

"...4kms eachway to walk..."

You mean work but I think you should be walking

Yes, EV's have their place. Bring em on.

lol, yeah i did mean work, but it wouldnt let me edit it


and walking isnt an option lol, maybe if i worked dayshift.

[JimNiki]

(I've said this before) IMO Battery technology for vehicles will always be too little too late.

By the time we do invent a battery which will allow us to go 500-600km on one fillup, we will have already invented an engine which can do the same without storing the energy.
It will create it as needed. eg: chemical electric, fuel cell (clean combustion), even some sort of atomic, etc. The massive benefit to doing this is not needing to create the electricity in the grid ready to charge EV vehicles. (Unless we can create this electricity 100% cleanly). I know the other technologies aren't perfect yet, I just feel that one of them will be ready to go before the battery technology matures...

[GUTLES]

I've always thought Electric Powered Vehicles would be really slow & generally useless.

Until we had a customer at work ask for a demo on one of these which have just come out: http://www.polarisindustries.com/en-.../Overview.aspx

After driving it around work I was extremly impressed with how much power it has for an EV.

Last weekend I went to a 4X4 Competition & had the chance to drive one through some tracks where some standard 4X4's we're struggling & it powered through without loosing power, I've totally changed my mind on EV's after this, it only gets 80km before it needs 8 hours charge tho..

[Resurrection]

Originally Posted by burnz

"Is the EV viable?"

in a word yes.
there is a demand, it will work for city dwellers, the techno will improve.

Not yet. They cost more than the current petrol powered vehicles and are outperformed by same sized petrol powered vehicles.

[dom_105]

I think the one factor that can drive the take up of these sort of vehicles is range. There needs to be a standardised system where batteries can be swapped at a service station. If that side of thing is developed, then the sky is the limit.