XT drops to only 4.5% of sales in FG - Ford inches closer to Holden

[merlin]

Interesting article in carsguide today about how Ford's sales are getting very close to Commodores. Though of particular interest is the fact Ford is now making more profit as 93% of sales are now "premium" Falcons with FG XT only making up 4.5% of sales mix. In previous model this was 60%! This is a huge change.

Link

Originally Posted by Carsguide.com.au

The sales gap between the Blue Oval and the Red Lion is closing.

In the blue corner, Ford is getting to within a whisker of Holden in the red corner in the passenger car sales race. Last month Ford came to within 1 per cent of Holden's share of vehicle sales. Ford had 11.2 per cent of the May market versus 12.2 per cent for Holden.

Holden is still ahead in year-to-date terms with a total vehicle share of 12.5 per cent against Ford's 10.3 per cent but the individual model count shows the gap is closing.

Related Coverage
Spy shot: Ford RangerFord recalls LPG Falcons1934 Ford Model B – Carsguide Car of the WeekHolden crisis is overHolden Commodore VF: VE faceliftHolden: icon or just con?Sales of the tradies' favourite, the Falcon and Holden utes, are with 0.1 per cent of each other this year. The Falcon ute has a 17.2 per cent market share and the Commodore ute a 17.1 share.

In overall terms Ford has experienced a modest gain in passenger car market share, up from 9.5 per cent last year to 10.5 per cent this year. By comparison, Holden's passenger share has remained relatively stagnant since last year but the Red Lion brand is still ahead by 3.9 per cent.

Ford is soon to ramp up its marketing message by launching a Fiesta and Focus assault on its toughest market, Sydney, to go head to head against Toyota.

"Sydney remains our toughest market," Burela says.

At the other end of the Ford scale Burela says the FG Falcon, after a slow sales start at launch last year, is gradually winning over large car buyers.

In overall terms both sedan and ute sales are still down 2 per cent and 14 per cent, but importantly Falcon, along with the VE Commodore, is improving its large car market share. The Falcon's share of the large car sales pie has increased this year to 31 per cent against 25 per cent for the same period last year. The Commodore's share has increased from 42 per cent to 47 per cent.

Burela says the FG is also bringing younger buyers to the brand. The average age of a Falcon owner has also come down from 55 to between 35 and 45. Although it is still too early to forecast full-blown large car recovery, Burela believes the signs are good.

A key indicator for Falcon's climb back into buyers' minds is that Ford is selling a richer, more profitable, mix of high-end FG Falcons than the previous model.

The XR sports models are the most popular, accounting for more than 50 per cent of FG sales, followed by the luxury G-Series cars, with 43 per cent and the XT accounting for 4.5 per cent. In the previous Falcon the XT was by far the most popular car, accounting for 60 per cent of sales.

With Holden's new VF Commodore around the corner, Ford plans to respond with a range of initiatives to maintain its FG sales momentum by promoting the car's economy and technology.

[vztrt]

http://www.fordforums.com.au/showthr...7&page=1&pp=25
Theres a bit of a discussion there

[The Monty]

Thats great for the falcon. No wonder Ive seen hardly any XT's onthe road, maybe 5 in the last year. As for therest, I see a lot of G6E's and G6Et's and not so many XR's.

[Road_Warrior]

I see more G6's on the road in Wait Awhile than I do XT's. I see a few XR6's around the place but not many. I'd probably see as many G6ET's as I would an FG FPV, ie, very rarely.

[EDManual]

I think that is wrong, What they mean to say is that 4.5% of XT sales are to private buyers, and that there were I think 33% of falcons that are XTs. The other 95.5% are sold to business. The other figures are the same, that is a % of private sales to fleet.

I read the 33% on another news site...

[Mr Hardware]

The pricing makes it what it is. Whilst the G6 and XR6 are only like 4 grand more than an XT instead of 14, who's gonna buy an XT?

[Fairlane]

I still see a shedload of XT's. Seen a few G6's, virtually no G6E's though- I think everyone with enough money to get G6E, got the turbo- which ive seen quite a few.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by EDManual

I think that is wrong, What they mean to say is that 4.5% of XT sales are to private buyers, and that there were I think 33% of falcons that are XTs. The other 95.5% are sold to business. The other figures are the same, that is a % of private sales to fleet.

I read the 33% on another news site...

I thought that too. But it isn't. Refer to the other thread.

XR models now make up 50+%
G series make up 43%
XT is just 4.5%

I see a heap more G series (majority are G6ET) and XR Falcons than XT for sure and certain. Getting pretty common here in Newcastle.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by phillyc

I thought that too. But it isn't. Refer to the other thread.

XR models now make up 50+%
G series make up 43%
XT is just 4.5%

I see a heap more G series (majority are G6ET) and XR Falcons than XT for sure and certain. Getting pretty common here in Newcastle.

The other thread is meant to be for this year (the high emmissions of the falcon stopped fleets buying them), but overall its meant to be split fairly evenly since the release.

[Raptor]

So why is that a good thing for Ford?

Previous XT shoppers are buying something else.
XR & Premo models are still worth buying.

So measured as a percentage XR & Premo go up and XT goes down but overall it's on a lower volume base so Ford is selling less.

Sure the profit per car might be better but overall revenue is down and may not be covering fixed costs = Not good.

Similarly measuring Fords as a % of passenger car sales or the Falcon as a % of large car sales tells you nothing unless you know the overall volumes, which I'd reckon are way down on where the business case says they should be.

[EDManual]

So where does carsales get their wrong figures! Hopeless journos...

Reading a bit further it IS a quite even split on xt, xr and g series, nothing like the 4 % xt they speak of. That could only be a PRIVATE % of xt sales.

[XplosiveR6]

Originally Posted by Raptor

So why is that a good thing for Ford?

Previous XT shoppers are buying something else.
XR & Premo models are still worth buying.

So measured as a percentage XR & Premo go up and XT goes down but overall it's on a lower volume base so Ford is selling less.

Sure the profit per car might be better but overall revenue is down and may not be covering fixed costs = Not good.

Similarly measuring Fords as a % of passenger car sales or the Falcon as a % of large car sales tells you nothing unless you know the overall volumes, which I'd reckon are way down on where the business case says they should be.

Previous XT shoppers where fleets, which ford never made much money from anyway. I think they would rather sell more prestige models at close to rrp then basically giving away base models to fleet companys.

Shying away from fleets is a good thing, it improves market perception, people wont percieve the car as just a fleet hack anymore, why do you think ford stoped making taxi packs? Because A they dont make hardly any money off them and B they make the rest of their range look bad, same thing happens with fleet hacks with telstra stickers and dirty white police cars with steel rims.

People dont want to spend their hard earned and pay full price on a car that looks just like their neighbours trashed company car which they turn over every year.

This is a GOOD thing for ford, stop playing the mines bigger then yours game like holden, and make some money! Who cares if you sell more, when your loosing money year after year cos you rely on telstra and the government to sell cars.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by merlin

Interesting article in carsguide today about how Ford's sales are getting very close to Commodores. Though of particular interest is the fact Ford is now making more profit as 93% of sales are now "premium" Falcons with FG XT only making up 4.5% of sales mix. In previous model this was 60%! This is a huge change.

Link

Your spot on with the much richer mix. Building to order as well, will certainly help the bottom line.

Originally Posted by Carsguide

Burela says the FG is also bringing younger buyers to the brand. The average age of a Falcon owner has also come down from 55 to between 35 and 45. Although it is still too early to forecast full-blown large car recovery, Burela believes the signs are good.]

The bolded print to me was just as important. A reduction of some 15 years is a massive drop and a real step in the right direction. What that means is that Ford is now finally winning back that demographic of customers (who were ready for their first cars but were) abandoned when Ford dropped the V8 back in the early 1980's. I think its also a reflection of the B series owners having a positive experience and them updating.

[ltd]

Great news for ford, and I am seeing more and more of the fg on the road every day. The age drop is a great thing too, seen as a younger and more vibrant brand; the fiesta and focus will seal up the girlie end of the market ie, big car for the boys, little car for the girls.

[#Russ#Es#]

Originally Posted by ltd

the fiesta and focus will seal up the girlie end of the market ie, big car for the boys, little car for the girls.

I could say 'Typical Falcon bogan comment' couldn't I, but then I would be playing the same game. Funny that there's a higher percentage of female Falcon and Territory members on here than Fiesta and Focus members...

[ltd]

Originally Posted by #Russ#Es#

I could say 'Typical Falcon bogan comment' couldn't I, but then I would be playing the same game. Funny that there's a higher percentage of female Falcon and Territory members on here than Fiesta and Focus members...

Mate, not having a go at anyone here - what I'm eluding to is the non ford buyer; the type who buys a camry for himself and a corolla for the misses. You don't need to remind me of fords gender neutrality, but your average emo coming from a VW golf to a ford yard with his GF might find the experience liberating - he might even grow a pair on the lot. I should also qualify that my brother just bought an XR5 focus and I concur with him, it is one hell of a brilliant car.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by merlin

Interesting article in carsguide today about how Ford's sales are getting very close to Commodores. Though of particular interest is the fact Ford is now making more profit as 93% of sales are now "premium" Falcons with FG XT only making up 4.5% of sales mix. In previous model this was 60%! This is a huge change.

How are they getting close?

Holden Commodore 3683
Toyota Hilux 3180
Mazda3 3038
Ford Falcon 2846

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by XplosiveR6

Previous XT shoppers where fleets, which ford never made much money from anyway. I think they would rather sell more prestige models at close to rrp then basically giving away base models to fleet companys.

Shying away from fleets is a good thing, it improves market perception, people wont percieve the car as just a fleet hack anymore, why do you think ford stoped making taxi packs? Because A they dont make hardly any money off them and B they make the rest of their range look bad, same thing happens with fleet hacks with telstra stickers and dirty white police cars with steel rims.

People dont want to spend their hard earned and pay full price on a car that looks just like their neighbours trashed company car which they turn over every year.

This is a GOOD thing for ford, stop playing the mines bigger then yours game like holden, and make some money! Who cares if you sell more, when your loosing money year after year cos you rely on telstra and the government to sell cars.

Dealers need volume for servicing and sales of spares. Ford need volume for amortising costs over the life of a model.

Less volume is not always a good thing.

Ford have become good at maximising their return on small volumes, but I am certain, that if they could wave a magic wand to boost XT sales tomorrow - they would.

Fords Falcon and Territory sales are still trending down as they have for years.

Dan

[Falc'man]

Originally Posted by Wally

How are they getting close?

Holden Commodore 3683
Toyota Hilux 3180
Mazda3 3038
Ford Falcon 2846

Did you even bother reading the article, Wally?

[Wally]

Yes I did. I was questioing "Ford's sales are getting very close to Commodores" which going on the responses inferred Fords = Falcon. Nothing sinister, just trying to align the comparo discussion

[Falc'man]

Originally Posted by Wally

Yes I did. I was questioing "Ford's sales are getting very close to Commodores" which going on the responses inferred Fords = Falcon. Nothing sinister, just trying to align the comparo discussion

On the flipside, Commodore = Holden, as per article.

[shakows]

The Commodore figure includes Wagon's as well

Holden sales are up there still only because of the new "Sportswagon"

[CAMS290]

The sooner Ford releases the LGI Falcon the better, I pulled up next to a beautiful looking FG G6E yesterday and noticed the LPG sticker on the number plate, youngish company exec behind the wheel, and I thought to myself......my povo pack '04 BA XL E Gas ute has the same running gear as your FG G6E.......that's not right.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by Falc'man

On the flipside, Commodore = Holden, as per article.

Yes, I'd gathered that, but really many of us measure success of both companies by local manufacture.

[Swordsman88]

Originally Posted by CAMS290

The sooner Ford releases the LGI Falcon the better, I pulled up next to a beautiful looking FG G6E yesterday and noticed the LPG sticker on the number plate, youngish company exec behind the wheel, and I thought to myself......my povo pack '04 BA XL E Gas ute has the same running gear as your FG G6E.......that's not right.

No...it aint. BUT...and i know its a big BUT....to a large degree the whole LPG falcon situation has been forced upon Ford. Or at least forced upon its engineers. The V6 replacing I6, back to I6 situation, the Emissions situation (negating any incentive for Ford to do much of anything other than a wholesale changover to Euro 4 engines), and the legal wranglings RE the LI system they were working on has been as big an issue as the fact they couldnt' be bothered. Even during the BF days the LPG was predominantly fleet based, private buyers weren't into it. Ford only started pushing it in the last few years...and its competitors weren't so numerous. now every man and his dog is getting on the LPG (and diesel too) bandwagon and its time to man up. Which they are doing.

My instinct is to grin and bear it. Because when ford does finally release a LI LPG only I6 (which won't be far off...think less than 12 months) its going to blow the pants off what alof other people have. Goauto had a story recently where the mob supplying Ford the current mixer ring setup (name escapes me...they took over boral??) said it was quite amazing what ford has achieved given the current basic set up. Just think of petrol matching power (and torque), complete with 5sp auto, with only 10% more L/100km than petrol...how much is lpg per litre again??? I bet then the XT sales go up a bit. Once fleets jump on board FG then Ford is really off to the races. of course Holden is working on its own stuff too to woo fleets...but no matter how small that DI alloytec is it won't ever be as cheap to run as an FG Mk2 LPG Egas. Won't be no cheaper to build neither.....

[Mr Hardware]

Orbital
45c

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Wally

Yes, I'd gathered that, but really many of us measure success of both companies by local manufacture.

Yep, in that regard, Ford won by 100 odd units in May 2009.

[phillyc]

Some have posted that there are a few big rental fleet sales upcoming. I wonder what spec, those sales will be at? ie will they be XT models?

The reason I ask, is well I would like to guesstimate what the monthly sales might be.

The current split is purported to be 52.5% for XR models, 43% for G series and 4.5% XT. At 2846 sales for May 2009, this equates to 1494 XR, 1224 G, 128 XT models.

Recently it's been suggested that the split in recent weeks has been 33% for everything. You would imagine that this is new business and wouldn't affect existing XR/G volumes.

So, if the XR & G series kept similar volumes but slipped to 1/3rd each, that equates to some 3700-4500 monthly Falcon sales. The lower end is feasible, but still probably production and most possibly demand limited...

What is the current line rate? Last I heard was 200-220 per day (Terri, Ute, Sedan & Wagon).

NB The other aspect could be fleets now taking the 9.9L/100km XT at the expense of the XR/G. If there was a conquest rate of about 1 in 5 for both those, then that would mean sales would grow to 3100 a month.

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by phillyc

Yep, in that regard, Ford won by 100 odd units in May 2009.

People forget we sell more locally built product than Holden. Which is why Holden are doing it so hard. Ford are running a very lean manufacturing operation this year who by all reports is profitable, Holden however, still maintain a crew for double the production capacity than they are producing. It is a very sad situation for Holden and they mostly have the GM shambles to blame.......

[GT0132]

Originally Posted by merlin

Interesting article in carsguide today about how Ford's sales are getting very close to Commodores. Though of particular interest is the fact Ford is now making more profit as 93% of sales are now "premium" Falcons with FG XT only making up 4.5% of sales mix. In previous model this was 60%! This is a huge change.

Well, when you can get an NA XR6 for $36k on the road I can see why XT's aren't selling....Its high time they dropped the XT and made the XR6 the entry level model with the XR8 and XR6T the performance variants