Future of Ford and Holden Could be Revealed in Detroit this week - Page 11

Brazen · 21-01-2011, 02:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

It's so anonymous you actually need to go one more suburb into Campbellfield, however I can see what you mean.

oops hahah

jpd80 · 21-01-2011, 08:26 AM

For all the bluster of global platforms, Ford's midsized and large car only sell well in North America.
The proof of this is that Fusion outsells European Mondeo by two to one and Taurus is NA only.
So while linking Fusion-Mondeo and Maybe Taurus on one super platform rests huge benefits,
that in no way guarantees that those products (+Explorer) would be any better sellers here
than evolutions of the current Falcon and Territory. I think this is the case FoA is presenting.

I hope it works....

Edit, apart from Amortizing the development cost ($600 million over 6 years) using those Ford
global engines may save even more money and make the business plan for a local product work.

**Polyal** · 21-01-2011, 08:36 AM

FoA will/should IMO just do what HSV has done for years, drop global engines in their cars and use the funds to give customers things they can appreciate more.

FalconXV · 21-01-2011, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

For all the bluster of global platforms, Ford's midsized and large car only sell well in North America.
The proof of this is that Fusion outsells European Mondeo by two to one and Taurus is NA only.
So while linking Fusion-Mondeo and Maybe Taurus on one super platform rests huge benefits,
that in no way guarantees that those products (+Explorer) would be any better sellers here
than evolutions of the current Falcon and Territory. I think this is the case FoA is presenting.

I hope it works....

Edit, apart from Amortizing the development cost ($600 million over 6 years) using those Ford
global engines may save even more money and make the business plan for a local product work.

Reading this, it struck me that none of the Ford US products are really comparable in size to the Falcon, like the dimensions we want have been tailored over 50 years just to Australian tastes.
Either Taurus/ Fusion becomes streamlined (unlikely), or we end up with a US-sized car, I can't imagine the dimensions compromise being swung in our favour, and accordingly we could end up with a car that's more US than AUS, and it will become another global derivative like Camry/Aurion - I only support this if it yields more exports, but given how much Dearborn has clipped Falcon's migratory(export) wings, I envision us just building a Mitsubishi 380.

**Polyal** · 21-01-2011, 02:16 PM

^^pretty sure the mondeo actually has similar interior and boot space

DanielXR8 · 21-01-2011, 02:31 PM

Well Falcon has some unique points in its design that certainly make it attractive and along with the Commodore, unique to this country.

Now if Falcon goes and we get a global product as a replacement, Ford Australia is now selling something very similar in all categories of vehicles to its competitors. Ford will need to differentiate itself from its competitors with its marketing, customer service and dealer network.

And that of course is where the whole plan falls down - spectacularly.

Dan

saber · 22-01-2011, 07:48 AM

Ok, so my initial impression when some people mentioned the Taurus may be replacing the Falcon was utter shock! My mind instantly casted back to the early-mid 90's, when I remember the ugly, bug eye shaped Taurus; a car which nobody bought.

But there where a few of you who stated "Check out the new Taurus, you'll be surprised" (or something to that effect). So I hit youtube and looked up some reviews.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_in4utiV8Ak&NR=1

Here is just one review, there are more out there. I've got to admit, it far exceeded my expectations. In a market where lets be honest, most drivers couldn't tell if the car was driven by the front or rear (and nor would it matter to those people) I could definately see the Taurus selling here. The only thing Ford will really have to do (and do extremely well) is dispelling the notion of the 90's Taurus, which is what I thought the Taurus would be like.

I find the current styling to be very much in the mould of a FG Falcon, but with different headlight setup. The ecoboost engine, all wheel drive with a 0-100km/h of 5sec, not bad, not bad at all!!!

mickyyyy · 22-01-2011, 08:39 AM

When i showed a picture of my EF XR8 to a guy in the US he loved it and recons, that its an awesome shape and ppl in the US would take it onbaord in a heart beat.

jpd80 · 22-01-2011, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickyyyy

When i showed a picture of my EF XR8 to a guy in the US he loved it and recons, that its an awesome shape and ppl in the US would take it onbaord in a heart beat.

That's because the styling of the EF Falcon and MN12 Thunderbird was similar...
In another universe, EF/EL and MN12 T'bird would have been on the same platform.

burnz · 22-01-2011, 09:10 AM

well it's been over a week what have we learned??

jpd80 · 22-01-2011, 09:54 AM

Absolutely nothing.
Ford and Holden will make important decisions on next product cycles later this year.
It will be interesting to see what strategies are deployed ahead of the decisions.

Remember, disinformation is every bit as powerful a tool as calculated leaks,
some competitor's plans are based on "knowing" Ford's plans, look at Focus....

Maybe Ford could put it out there that they are switching to a global platform to save $5,000 a car
and then when Holden jumps in front to copy them, announce the Falcon stays as a shared RWD platform
at a point too late for Holden to change back.....

Chilliman · 22-01-2011, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

Maybe Ford could put it out there that they are switching to a global platform to save $5,000 a car
and then when Holden jumps in front to copy them, announce the Falcon stays as a shared RWD platform
at a point too late for Holden to change back.....

I like your thinking

trendkill555666 · 22-01-2011, 12:54 PM

The falcon dosen't wear a "falcon" badge now, so whats the bet under the "one ford" banner we get the Taurus, but with no "Taurus" badge, wearing the XT, G6, G6E and G6ETT (twin turbo V6), XR6 and XR6TT, all with redesigned front and rear dumpers and for the rear drive V8 fans we get a locally tuned version of the mustang, which Australia will be incharge of engineering (a la Camaro).

As for the ute????? F series or maybe Ford will create a global rear drive small truck.

Me, personally, I want a V8 but two doors wont suit (not till the kids move out anyway, bl@@dy kids).

Anyway thats my feeling on what will happen, interesting times ahead.

jpd80 · 22-01-2011, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trendkill555666

The falcon dosen't wear a "falcon" badge now......

XT, XR series all have Falcon badges affixed to the left rear side of the boot lid,
the reason G Series doesn't is because it replaced the Fairmont and Fairmont Ghia.

trendkill555666 · 22-01-2011, 01:16 PM

my bad, I thought it was only the base ute that was called a falcon

Chilliman · 22-01-2011, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trendkill555666

As for the ute?????........ maybe Ford will create a global rear drive small truck.

They already have - the T6 to become the Ranger, designed by Ford Australia and to be built in Thailand.

Gobes32 · 23-01-2011, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chilliman

They already have - the T6 to become the Ranger, designed by Ford Australia and to be built in Thailand.

And the sad truth is, T6 will sound the death knell for the local ute. The fact that Hilux outsells the Falcon ute 3 to 1 says to me the ute wil go the way of the panel van and the Fairlane..........

BroadyFord · 23-01-2011, 10:48 AM

There is a big concern about what will happen with the Falcon between now and 2015/16 that could reverberate through to the next Falcon.

FoA are bringing, as we all know, the new eco boost Falcon and diesel Territory from this year to try and arrest the collapse in sales. My prediction is that these new vehicles will sell well for a year, maybe two but then drop off again to current levels. My worry is by the time we get to 2015 FoA could be down to a very unprofitable 20-40k cars a year. This could cause Mulally and Co to lose faith in FoA and wonder why they should continue to bleed money producing cars here.

If they do indeed decide to produce the next gen Falcon here, the only thing that will save them is EXPORTS, EXPORTS, EXPORTS!!!!!

If they carry on producing cars simply for the Aussie market and not take a lead from Toyota and Holden, I can guarantee the next Falcon (assuming it's built here) will be the last one.

mickyyyy · 23-01-2011, 11:26 AM

Why dont ford and holden just use same base and change things like front end panels and lights just like when holden did it there.....................

The US ppl seemed to like them???

jpd80 · 23-01-2011, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gobes32

And the sad truth is, T6 will sound the death knell for the local ute. The fact that Hilux outsells the Falcon ute 3 to 1 says to me the ute wil go the way of the panel van and the Fairlane..........

Woah there, that's not quite true.

T6 Ranger 4x2 and 4x4 compete with Hilux, the Falcon Ute value adds to 4x2 sales.
Falcon Ute doesn't compete with Ranger 4x2 sales, they appeal to a different buyer group.

jpd80 · 23-01-2011, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickyyyy

Why dont ford and holden just use same base and change things like front end panels and lights just like when holden did it there.....................

The US ppl seemed to like them???

So much so that the car could barely sell above 1,000/month in a country of 320 million

I'll just throw this out here:
There something inherently wrong with a joint venture Falacadore....

maybe because Ford isn't a division of GM?

**Fordman1** · 23-01-2011, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

Woah there, that's not quite true.

T6 Ranger 4x2 and 4x4 compete with Hilux, the Falcon Ute value adds to 4x2 sales.
Falcon Ute doesn't compete with Ranger 4x2 sales, they appeal to a different buyer group.

However, when the decision to replace the current ute is made and the E8 platform is not carried for the Falcon replacement, Falcon Ute is dead.

jpd80 · 23-01-2011, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

However, when the decision to replace the current ute is made and the E8 platform is not carried for the Falcon replacement, Falcon Ute is dead.

A variation on a shared platform has much more justification through lower cost.
If FoA don't spend $700 million developing a unique platform, they may well be able
to justify a Station wagon and AWD Ute - particularly if USA wants them too...

**Fordman1** · 23-01-2011, 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

A variation on a shared platform has much more justification through lower cost.
If FoA don't spend $700 million developing a unique platform, they may well be able
to justify a Station wagon and AWD Ute - particularly if USA wants them too...

Lets hope so ....

My bet is No ......

jpd80 · 23-01-2011, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

Lets hope so ....

My bet is No ......

Look at it this way, if Dearborn was so hell bent on Australia conforming to "One Ford",
they would not have green lighted FG Falcon back in 2006 and instead just rammed
the CD3 Fusion and Edge or CX-9 down FoA's throats and ignored all local data input.

The fact that none of that happened says to me that FoA has legitimate
business cases for its product needs and head office is prepared to listen.

vztrt · 23-01-2011, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BroadyFord

FoA are bringing, as we all know, the new eco boost Falcon and diesel Territory from this year to try and arrest the collapse in sales. My prediction is that these new vehicles will sell well for a year, maybe two but then drop off again to current levels. My worry is by the time we get to 2015 FoA could be down to a very unprofitable 20-40k cars a year. This could cause Mulally and Co to lose faith in FoA and wonder why they should continue to bleed money producing cars here.

Your forgetting the LPG Falcon & Ute. This is killing them them big time. I remember back in 06 when LPG sales shot up. They need LPG now, as well as the diesel terri.

bobthebilda · 23-01-2011, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

Look at it this way, if Dearborn was so hell bent on Australia conforming to "One Ford",
they would not have green lighted FG Falcon back in 2006 and instead just rammed
the CD3 Fusion and Edge or CX-9 down FoA's throats and ignored all local data input.

The fact that none of that happened says to me that FoA has legitimate
business cases for its product needs and head office is prepared to listen.

They may have had a business case in 2006 when they were selling over 42,000 (av 3500 per month) Falcon sedans, 16000 (av 1333 pm) utes and 18000 (av 1500pm) territories (76000 australian sales coming out of broadmeadows). And with the expectation that a newer model would increase sales upon these numbers. Then you compare them to 2010 sales ie just over 29000 falcon, 9000 utes and 12000 territories. (50,000 australian sales coming out of broadmeadows). Not to mention that since 2006, they have also had a decrease in the import tarriffs for cars, and the scenario they were looking at in 2006 looked much prettier than they do now.

**Fordman1** · 23-01-2011, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

They may have had a business case in 2006 when they were selling over 42,000 (av 3500 per month) Falcon sedans, 16000 (av 1333 pm) utes and 18000 (av 1500pm) territories (76000 australian sales coming out of broadmeadows). And with the expectation that a newer model would increase sales upon these numbers. Then you compare them to 2010 sales ie just over 29000 falcon, 9000 utes and 12000 territories. (50,000 australian sales coming out of broadmeadows). Not to mention that since 2006, they have also had a decrease in the import tarriffs for cars, and the scenario they were looking at in 2006 looked much prettier than they do now.

^^^^^^^ This !

jpd80 · 23-01-2011, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

They may have had a business case in 2006 when they were selling over 42,000 (av 3500 per month) Falcon sedans, 16000 (av 1333 pm) utes and 18000 (av 1500pm) territories (76000 australian sales coming out of broadmeadows). And with the expectation that a newer model would increase sales upon these numbers. Then you compare them to 2010 sales ie just over 29000 falcon, 9000 utes and 12000 territories. (50,000 australian sales coming out of broadmeadows). Not to mention that since 2006, they have also had a decrease in the import tarriffs for cars, and the scenario they were looking at in 2006 looked much prettier than they do now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

^^^^^^^ This !

I don't buy it, not for one minute.
Those very same sales expectations in 2006 also had a huge helping of XT fleet sales,
Falcon also had E-Gas powering along in Sedan and Ute securing around 20-25% of sales
and Territory was barely a couple of years old and still to get the ZF 6-speed auto.
There are very good reasons why Falcon, Ute sales are down, all to do with LPG

Fast forward to 2011:
1) Very shortly we are getting a very fresh Territory with ZF across the board
and a diesel option that set to double Territory sales ... now that's good news.

2) LI LPG falcon engine and Ecoboost I-4 arrive later this year and yes, these
engines will give Falcon Sedan and Ute a real shot in the arm as far as sales go.

3) A couple of years ago, FoA chopped 600 people from the workforce making
the production of Falcon, Ute and Territory super efficient compared to 2006.

With regards a change in platform:
1)Why are we not switching to Taurus, Explorer and next Mondeo inside the next two years?

2) Why are they letting FoA make their own business case with own design future vehicles?

Do not count out Ford Australia, I think you might be very surprised to know
just how costly it would be for them to change from evolving another Falcon
to tearing up supply contracts and adopting Ford's global FWD/AWD vehicles.

Keep the faith.

FPV GTHO · 24-01-2011, 12:24 AM

Hmm, Ford claim FG was 90% new anyway. What aspects does a vehicle like that still remain viable but a switch in platform doesnt?

FoA's issue as i see it is recouping development costs. If it was a global product or one at least funded globally, we would only have to recoup costs of local production and not local development.