Covid 19 -

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Does the “five second rule” apply to face masks, too?

yep

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

You'll have more pricks than a second hand dart board..............

At least me trousers will fit me like a glove......

[slowsnake]

Just watching Ch 2 news and the Pfizer vaccine has been approved for kids, starts 10th January 2022, ages 5 to 11.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Cav

Am I right in suggesting that the graphs show a covid death % rate of 1.5% to 3% of the population?

It begs the question therefore, how does covid compare to normal 'flu?

The generally accepted CMR for Influenza is considered to be 0.1% in developed countries. The problem, statistically speaking, with that study is it is entirely based on hospitalisation figures so if you wanted an analysis of your relative chance of dying from CODI19 v Influenza once hospitalised, it's a good guide.

The reality is that the percentage of people who get Influenza and never go near a hospital is huge compared to those who get COVID and end up in hospital.

Without going massively into detail; in Australia about 12% of COVID cases end up hospitalised with 4.1% of those ending up in ICU.

The hospitalisation rate varies significantly by age group with 46.9% of 80-89 year-old cases being hospitalised compared to 2.2% for the 2029 age group.

[russellw]

For those wondering about the effectiveness of booster shots here is some data from Israel regarding boosters which have been available there since July 30th.

Disclaimer: Please note that this study only applies to the BNT162b2 (Pfizer) vaccine where it has already been identified that the efficacy starts to wane after ~5-6 months. Other vaccines have shown different patterns of waning immunity over time as shown in other data I've posted recently with AstraZeneca the least impacted and J&J (not used here) the most impacted.

Data is for people who were >50 years of age at the start of the study and had received two doses of Pfizer at least 5 months earlier. The mortality due to Covid-19 among participants who received the booster during the study period was compared with that among participants who did not receive the booster.

Israel makes an interesting study because they vaccinated early and vaccinated almost the entire population which proved very effective prior to the Delta variant with cases dropping from 1,000 cases per 1 million persons per day in January 2021 to 1 or 2 cases per 1 million persons per day in June 2021.

The Delta variant along with the reduced efficacy of Pfizer over time led to a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in Israel and by August 2021, Israel had the highest incidence of Covid-19 worldwide which is why a booster was approved, initially for the >60 age group and then extended to the >50's.

A total of 843,208 participants met the eligibility criteria, of whom 758,118 (90%) received the booster during the 54-day study period. Death due to Covid-19 occurred in 65 participants in the booster group (0.16/100k persons per day) and in 137 participants in the non-booster group (2.98/100k persons per day). The adjusted hazard ratio for death due to Covid-19 in the booster group, as compared with the non-booster group, was 0.10 - that is to say participants who received a booster at least 5 months after a second dose of Pfizer had a 90% lower mortality rate due to Covid-19 than participants who did not receive a booster.

As a side note: during the study period, confirmed infection was observed in 2,888 participants in the booster group and 11,108 participants in the non-booster group. The adjusted hazard ratio for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the booster group, as compared with the non-booster group, was therefore 0.17 (i.e. the booster group were 83% less likely to be infected).

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 9th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,654 new cases for Australia and 10 deaths so the CMR is 0.930%.

106 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.349%.

The UK had 50,023 cases yesterday and 161 deaths for a CMR of 1.376%.

130,065 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,330 deaths sees CMR at 1.614%.

Other notable points:
Global deaths pass 5.3M, the last 50k in 6 days;
Europe passes 77M cases;

Eswatini (1,084);
Finland (1,781);
Zimbabwe (5,189); and
Norway (5,355);

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 516 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate increases to 1.1368 (from 1.1333) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend line although it is tracking with it.


VIC records 1,206 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0416 (from 1.0349) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.

[ford71V8]

Thursday night my daughter's friend got notification that she had been at an exposure site. The gap between her visit to that site and the SMS she received was over 48hours.
This is all new-ish to us in SA.
She has to isolate for 14 days. Hope she's done her Xmas shopping.
With this info we were surprised to not see any info of the site in the news or online.
Eventually the info was there, but 24 hours later.
Long time considering the fast transmission deal.
This girl works with children and as it is a care-centre there is a huge number of interactions with other adults also.
Easy to see how it can go wild with delays like that.

[Work Horse]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Thursday night my daughter's friend got notification that she had been at an exposure site. The gap between her visit to that site and the SMS she received was over 48hours.

The health authorities would not have known she was at an exposure site until someone tests positive. Then they go back and contact trace after someone tests positive. So she was contacted 48hrs from when she was exposed but how long after the authorities were aware?

Originally Posted by ford71V8

This is all new-ish to us in SA.
She has to isolate for 14 days. Hope she's done her Xmas shopping.
With this info we were surprised to not see any info of the site in the news or online.
Eventually the info was there, but 24 hours later.
Long time considering the fast transmission deal.
This girl works with children and as it is a care-centre there is a huge number of interactions with other adults also.
Easy to see how it can go wild with delays like that.

Victoria no longer publishes a list of exposure sites. Instead the health authorities contact you directly by phone or the Service Victoria app.

Now that most are vaccinated we are attempting to living with Covid. No more lockdowns, everything back to (post Covid) normal.

I don't miss the lack of traffic during lock down.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Thursday night my daughter's friend got notification that she had been at an exposure site. The gap between her visit to that site and the SMS she received was over 48hours.
This is all new-ish to us in SA.
She has to isolate for 14 days. Hope she's done her Xmas shopping.
With this info we were surprised to not see any info of the site in the news or online.
Eventually the info was there, but 24 hours later.
Long time considering the fast transmission deal.
This girl works with children and as it is a care-centre there is a huge number of interactions with other adults also.
Easy to see how it can go wild with delays like that.

Thats actually quite quick believe it or not.
My Manager was in an exposure site on the 26/11 at Cardone's Seafood and Grill Glenelg, didnt get the SMS until 2/12.

I walked out of the depot on the Thursday morning and he's standing with his mask on, im like, you dont need that on outside mate, he said you do if you receive one of these and held up his phone with the message.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by ford71V8

Thursday night my daughter's friend got notification that she had been at an exposure site. The gap between her visit to that site and the SMS she received was over 48hours.
This is all new-ish to us in SA.
She has to isolate for 14 days. Hope she's done her Xmas shopping.
With this info we were surprised to not see any info of the site in the news or online.
Eventually the info was there, but 24 hours later.
Long time considering the fast transmission deal.
This girl works with children and as it is a care-centre there is a huge number of interactions with other adults also.
Easy to see how it can go wild with delays like that.

Bummer, right on Christmas too, does she know if she goes to the MyGov website she can apply for a Covid-19 one off payment?
May ease the pain of loss of pay, neighbour got it, nearly $700 and she deserved it!

[Citroënbender]

Three days to go.

From Wednesday, NSW abandons mandatory QR codes and masks in many everyday settings - just as new infections ramp up. I note Professor Esterman of UNSW (who has largely been a “moderate” in his comments since Covid awareness kicked off) is suggesting that new cases for NSW won’t peak until sometime in February.

If the state government holds its nerve on this timeline, I’m fully expecting a backlash from several other states in restrictions upon inbound people who’ve been in NSW.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Three days to go.

From Wednesday, NSW abandons mandatory QR codes and masks in many everyday settings - just as new infections ramp up. I note Professor Esterman of UNSW (who has largely been a “moderate” in his comments since Covid awareness kicked off) is suggesting that new cases for NSW won’t peak until sometime in February.

If the state government holds its nerve on this timeline, I’m fully expecting a backlash from several other states in restrictions upon inbound people who’ve been in NSW.

It’ll be most interesting how Herr Dan responds to this?
I’d suggest mayhem if he doesn’t follow suit? (Especially Christmas lead up)

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

It’ll be most interesting how Herr Dan responds to this?

I’d suggest mayhem if he doesn’t follow suit? (Especially Christmas lead up)

Masks set to go on the 15th. Check ins are almost useless now. Compliance is about 30% from observations..... Hardly anyone does it any longer, and no one checks. The only ones that check are events and restaurants.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 10th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,729 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 0.923%.

No data for NZ so CMR is 0.349%.

The UK had 58,184 cases yesterday and 120 deaths for a CMR of 1.364%.

135,548 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,848 deaths sees CMR at 1.613%.

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 268M, the last 1M in 2 days;
Europe passes 77M cases;


Laos (1,645);
Finland (1,794); and
Norway (5,413);

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Namibia moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 560 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.1051 (from 1.1368) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend line although it is tracking with it.



VIC records 1,193 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0121 (from 1.0416) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.

[CoupeKing]

Personally I take about ten thousand international units of vitamin D per day plus 30 minutes to and hour of good sun (low in the sky)....obviously when it's not overcast.

I eat one meal per day around 6pm and usually walk between 1 to 2 hours when I can find the time. And I also take the other vitamins mentioned, and then some.

I never recorded any of it but my best guess is that I have been doing most of that or working towards it for at least a year.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Personally I take about ten thousand international units of vitamin D ................

And I also take the other vitamins mentioned, and then some.

.........

Wouldn't trust big pharma with those pills.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Wouldn't trust big pharma with those pills.

I never stated how I sourced them, and yet you trusted big pharma with the vaccines.....

You can't fix stupid.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

I never stated how I sourced them, and yet you trusted big pharma with the vaccines.....

You can't fix stupid.

Bad humour /sarcasm.....my bad.

If you only eat once a day, it'd be an interesting diet to obtain 10,000 IU vitamin D without "pills".

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Bad humour /sarcasm.....my bad.

If you only eat once a day, it'd be an interesting diet to obtain 10,000 IU vitamin D without "pills".

Sun/Food/certified organic ''pills''/pastured-raised organ meats/wild caught salmon/organic cod liver oil etc. Take ya pick.

And the one meal is a big meal. Usually two plates or two bowls depending on what I'm eating.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Personally I take about ten thousand international units of vitamin D per day ..

I eat one meal per day around 6pm and usually walk between 1 to 2 hours when I can find the time. And I also take the other vitamins mentioned, and then some.

Oh man...that would gas me right up...missus would not be happy...

[nearlythere]

No vax for me.
And no it's not my job to protect you that's what the vax is for.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT December 11th 2021.

Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting.

1,745 new cases for Australia and 18 deaths so the CMR is 0.924%.

160 new cases for NZ and 2 deaths so CMR is 0.360%.

The UK had 52,279 cases yesterday and 132 deaths for a CMR of 1.359%.

147,299 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,591 deaths sees CMR at 1.612%.

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Asia passes 83M cases;

Laos (1,898);
Zimbabwe (6,181); and
Vietnam (16,141)

.... recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and Latvia drops below.

[russellw]

NSW/VIC
NSW records 485 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 1.0837 (from 1.1051) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 1,069 cases in the current period and the 10-day average growth rate decreases to 0.9814 (from 1.0121) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.

[FairmontGS]

The GSS has hit 94.9% first dose. Not long until the magic 95% as expected. Pretty wold-class effort.

[slowsnake]

Looks like South Korea has a problem?

ASIA-PACIFIC NEWS
South Korea's virus surge exceeds 7,000 cases for 3rd straight day
PUBLISHED FRI, DEC 10 2021 1:30 AM EST
KEY POINTS
New coronavirus infections in South Korea exceeded 7,000 for the third consecutive day on Friday in a record-breaking surge that has crushed hospitals and threatens the country’s goals to weather the pandemic without lockdowns.
Kim said the government will also speed up the administration of booster shots by shortening the interval between the second and third vaccine injections from the current four or five months to three months starting next week.
Officials issued administrative orders requiring hospitals around the country to designate 2,000 more beds combined for Covid-19 treatment.
GP: SK testing site 211210
A sign for temperature checks at Seoul Station in Seoul, South Korea, on Thursday, Dec. 9, 2021.
SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty Images
New coronavirus infections in South Korea exceeded 7,000 for the third consecutive day on Friday in a record-breaking surge that has crushed hospitals and threatens the country's goals to weather the pandemic without lockdowns.

Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said during a virus meeting that the country could be forced to take "extraordinary" measures if the virus doesn't slow soon. Officials issued administrative orders requiring hospitals around the country to designate 2,000 more beds combined for Covid-19 treatment.


Kim said the government will also speed up the administration of booster shots by shortening the interval between the second and third vaccine injections from the current four or five months to three months starting next week.

Around 41.5 million people, or 81% of the population of over 51 million, have been fully vaccinated, but only 10% have received booster shots.

The delta-driven spread in recent weeks has been accompanied by a spike in hospitalizations and deaths, many among people in their 60s or older whose immunities have waned after being inoculated early in the vaccine rollout that began in February.

CNBC Health & Science
Read CNBC's latest global coverage of the Covid pandemic:

Covid cases more than doubled in South Africa last week as omicron variant spreads, WHO says

WHO says omicron variant could change the course of the Covid pandemic

Pfizer CEO says fourth Covid vaccine doses may be needed sooner than expected due to omicron

Pfizer will submit full data on Covid treatment pill to the FDA in a few days, CEO says

Pfizer and BioNTech say booster provides high level of protection against omicron in initial lab study

Pfizer will submit full data on Covid treatment pill to the FDA in a few days, CEO says

Officials tightened restrictions starting Monday, banning private social gatherings of seven or more people in the greater capital area and requiring adults to verify their vaccination status at restaurants and other indoor venues. But Kim said such measures haven't yet showed an effect in slowing transmissions

"If it becomes clear that we aren't succeeding in reversing this crisis situation within the next few days, the government will have no other choice but to employ extraordinary anti-virus measures, including strong social distancing," said Kim, South Korea's No. 2 behind President Moon Jae-in.


Deputy Health Minister Lee Ki-il said officials may further reduce the limit on social gatherings and restore business-hour restrictions at restaurants and bars that were lifted in November if things continue to look bad next week.

"We will try our best to avoid a lockdown," Lee said during a briefing.

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency said around 5,300 of the 7,022 new cases reported Friday were from capital Seoul and the nearby metropolitan area, where the virus has hit hardest. The country's death toll is now at 4,130 after 53 virus patients died in the past 24 hours, while 852 others were in serious or critical conditions.

South Korea has also tightened its borders to fend off the new omicron variant since identifying its first cases last week that were linked to arrivals from Nigeria. The KDCA said health workers confirmed three more omicron infections on Friday, bringing the tally to 63.

Scientists say it's not yet clear whether omicron is more contagious or dangerous than previous strains of the virus.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

The GSS has hit 94.9% first dose. Not long until the magic 95% as expected. Pretty wold-class effort.

I dunno how classy it is to be threatened the double jab or:

Can't work

Can't go to the pub

And what's the go on brothels?

Where's Damo when you need him.

[Citroënbender]

Big number for the GSS today, are there white knuckles in the hot seats?

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Cav

I dunno how classy it is to be threatened the double jab or:

Can't work

Can't go to the pub

And what's the go on brothels?

Where's Damo when you need him.

It's the good of the many prevailing over the shrill shrieks of the few Cavable.