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28-04-2021, 10:42 AM | #1 | ||
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Thanks fellas, for providing artifacts to support what was said in the first place. That states agreed to do what is ultimately the Feds job. Which is why they should be providing more assistance when requested.
Not sure why this topic is so trying and sensitive. |
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28-04-2021, 11:30 AM | #2 | ||
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28-04-2021, 11:41 AM | #3 | |||
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We take a simplistic view that 120 years ago quarantine was determined to be a federal task. So we have Border force to enforce our ability on the border. There is no skillset to handle people once through the border. Where would all of the health professionals come from? What facilities are available? I think the vast majority of those going through Quarantine would prefer a comfy hotel to barracks of some kind. And nothing to say they are any better than any hotel room - remember these people will not be allowed to wonder around the facilities and the swimming pool. They will still be confined to a room, with all of the same challenges in a hotel. If you put them in a camp, and run it WA style, there is no difference, they could get infected on day 14, leave the camp and go home. No difference at all, we just feel safer as it is further away. The critical current failing in WA is they have decided in their wisdom to leave infections people across the corridor from non. That is dumb, has been discovered elsewhere and addressed. The decision for the states to run it was due to them having the associated peoplepower and access to facilities. It could never have been run by the feds. They made a smart, correct group decision. There was actually no other workable choice. It is my belief that after 14 days in hotel quarantine, there should be 7 days isolating at home with a further test at day 5 at home.
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28-04-2021, 12:37 PM | #4 | |||
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https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/...27-p57mqw.html "Genomic sequencing last week revealed their infection was the same as the infections of two family members who were staying in accommodation next door before being moved to Special Health Accommodation after testing positive. Although the three returned travellers flew into Sydney on the same plane from Kuala Lumpur, they all tested negative to the virus on day two of their stay, prompting an investigation into whether the virus had been transmitted within the hotel." |
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28-04-2021, 12:58 PM | #5 | ||
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Social distancing or whatever people may call to choose it, is breaking down.
I was one of three in a large lift today - probably reduced capacity of 4 persons, couldn’t see the signage - then it was crammed by another six people. We didn’t quite need the Japanese train conductors in white gloves to do the pushing, but it felt squeezy. So - next time the zombies escape in Sydney - it could get busy really fast… |
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28-04-2021, 03:21 PM | #6 | |||
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28-04-2021, 12:26 PM | #7 | ||
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 27th, 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 23 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.062%. 8 new cases and 0 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.997% and active cases 36. The UK had a higher 2,685 cases yesterday and 17 deaths. Just over 48.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 342 deaths sees CMR at 1.784%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global cases pass 149M, the last 1M in 1 day; Asia sets a new daily case high of 489,419; India sets a new global high with 362,902 cases; Europe passes 44M cases; Asia passes 0.5M deaths Only - Maldives (386); Réunion (1,038); Sri Lanka (1,111); Costa Rica (1,927); and India (362,902) ... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. No countries move above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and none drop below.
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28-04-2021, 12:34 PM | #8 | ||
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28-04-2021, 01:35 PM | #9 | ||
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Hard to say just yet. The 10-day average is 2,369 but 6 of the last 10 have been above that, however, the previous 10-day average was 2,560 so at least it has improved slightly.
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28-04-2021, 12:57 PM | #10 | |||
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28-04-2021, 06:02 PM | #11 | |||
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It's just a tragedy...
India COVID surge sees oxygen, medicine sold on black market Quote:
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28-04-2021, 07:58 PM | #12 | ||||
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Quote:
Quote:
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28-04-2021, 07:01 PM | #13 | ||
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I can't recall, but did Australia stop flights coming in from USA, Brazil, UK when their daily case numbers were much higher than India's numbers are currently?
I don't seem to remember Scotty pulling the plug from people arriving from the above mentioned countries when they were in a worse situation? So why only ban flights from India? And why now, just a couple of days after the public outrage over Scotty letting an Australian citizen of Indian origin travel to India to get married?? Hmmmm... |
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28-04-2021, 09:41 PM | #14 | ||
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I stand to be corrected but I can't remember any country having the same daily infection rate as India has atm?
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28-04-2021, 10:53 PM | #15 | |||
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India has since recorded the highest number per day. A few thousand more than the USA record. But the question still has to be asked. Why shut off India only, when the USA was in a similar position in January of this year? |
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29-04-2021, 10:45 AM | #16 | |||
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I think what it comes down to is the confidence level around India getting some control over the spread which there is no sign of thus far. Despite some not unreasonable doubts during the Trump era, there was always some confidence that the USA would get a better grip on it eventually - and their case numbers now support that confidence. I've long been concerned that the numbers coming out of India were a bit light in terms of deaths as their CMR has been sitting around 1.1% - well below the global average of 2.1% with similarly developed countries averaging 2.2% but then we also know that in this current wave both case and mortality numbers are being understated.
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29-04-2021, 10:57 AM | #17 | ||
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Some positive news just coming in. BOJO has done very well despite screwing up the CV19 response in the beginning. Any chance we can learn from it?
Seven in 10 British adults have COVID antibodies as herd immunity nears https://www.theage.com.au/world/euro...29-p57nbe.html "The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 68 per cent of adults now have some level of protection against the virus, either from vaccination or a prior infection. The level has risen by one third in a month while infections have waned, meaning much of the upswing can be credited to Britain’s vaccine rollout." |
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29-04-2021, 06:00 PM | #18 | |||
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https://www.ft.com/content/37c0d64b-...c-ec3e465c8d0d https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ve-updates-us/ And www.worldometers data also supports this. USA's highest recorded daily case number was 307,507 in a single day (08/01/2021). But as you say, it's irrelevant now. If India gets to the point where they match the USA in case numbers per 100k population, they are in deep poo poo big time, and so are we as a whole world. |
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28-04-2021, 09:52 PM | #19 | |||
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more positives than any daily total from any country. Scarier, 25% positive rate on those tested. Their real numbers must be over a million a day. You may have to give Scotty an attaboy this time.
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29-04-2021, 10:17 AM | #20 | |||
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The USA peaked at 297k and had a 10 day period where the average was over 240k/day before rapidly dropping. The UK peaked at 68k and had a 10 day period where the average was 57k/day before gradually dropping. India has had a peak (thus far) of 362k cases yesterday and a 10 day average of 320k/day. In fairness, the cases / 100k of population peaks were much worse for some other countries than India: India is peaking at about 26/100k; Brazil peaked at 58/100k; the USA at 90/100k and the UK at almost 100/100k.
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29-04-2021, 04:57 PM | #21 | ||
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Yep...there is also the high probability that the US health system was able to report the number of cases far more accurately than India due to a complete overwhelming of test centers and hospitals.
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28-04-2021, 07:05 PM | #22 | |||
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And more
India surpasses 200,000 COVID deaths as health system buckles under virus surge Quote:
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29-04-2021, 02:37 PM | #23 | |||
Where to next??
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If my maths is correct that tells me that there are a little under 10 million deaths per year. Or, around 189,000 deaths per week.
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___________________________ I've been around the world a couple of times or maybe more....... |
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29-04-2021, 09:52 AM | #24 | ||
If it ain't broke........
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https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...25e367ea445efa
Some media are saying the 55 year old was fit and healthy, others are saying he had a pre existing condition..........
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29-04-2021, 12:02 PM | #25 | ||
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Yes, plenty of reasons to suspect that India is much worse than UK, USA, etc.
COVID-19: India crematoriums 'underreporting bodies' as suspicion grows over true number of coronavirus deaths https://news.sky.com/story/india-cre...eaths-12288828 Are Indian statistics understating covid-19 cases and deaths? https://www.economist.com/the-econom...ses-and-deaths India’s Uncounted COVID-19 Deaths https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...ovid-19-deaths India grieves 200,000 dead with many more probably uncounted https://www.9news.com.au/world/india...3-c7099a2d91ca |
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29-04-2021, 12:57 PM | #26 | ||
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The under reporting may not be intentional, they are literally out of control, poor sods its hard to imagine and take in.
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29-04-2021, 01:13 PM | #27 | ||
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Data valid as at 00:00 GMT April 28th, 2021.
Note: As not all Australian States report at the same time, the data below is based on the previous full day reporting. 32 new cases for Australia and no deaths so the CMR is 3.059%. 1 new case and 0 deaths for NZ so CMR is 0.996% and active cases 27. The UK had a lower 2,166 cases yesterday and 29 deaths. Just over 52k new cases in the USA yesterday and 994 deaths sees CMR at 1.784%. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences. Other notable points: Global cases pass 150M, the last 1M in 1 day; Global deaths pass 3.15M, the last 50k in 4 days; Asia sets a new daily case high of 508,025; India sets a new global high with 379,459 cases; India passes 18M cases and 200k deaths; Asia passes 38M cases. Trinidad & Tobago (223); Cabo Verde (409); Maldives (464); Cambodia (698); Sri Lanka (1,466) - 32% above yesterdays high; Costa Rica (2,434); and India (379,459) ... recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day. Latvia moves above the 90th percentile for their 10 day average and Bosnia drops below.
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29-04-2021, 02:59 PM | #28 | |||
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Not surprised to see Maldives enter this list. In fact I went looking to see after reading that big numbers of India's rich are choosing there to escape to. |
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29-04-2021, 04:51 PM | #29 | |||
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Oh? I thought India's rich were fleeing using their dual nationality documents to "come home" to ......Australia.
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29-04-2021, 02:21 PM | #30 | ||
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I think the under-reporting of deaths has been systemic from the start based on them only recording those who had a confirmed diagnoses prior to their death. It's worse than the UK model that only counts those who didn't have 'probably fatal' co-morbidities and even their CMR is 2.8%.
Indeed, countries that have done a lot of testing (Australia, Italy the USA) are all well above the Indian CMR (two of those above 3%) and we know that high testing volumes tend to reduce CMR so with only 20% of the population tested you would expect the Indian CMR to be much higher. Even Russia, which we already know has been under-reporting deaths by a lot has a CMR more than twice that of India and if we add the 100k deaths that allegedly haven't been reported then it's more than 3x worse. The global average of a little over 2% should be read as very much an absolute rough guide only and any countries significantly below that treated with at least some disbelief. I've been studying this data for a long time now and here is my 10 cents worth of opinion - IF you have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, AND can manage the spread effectively AND you keep it out of the aged care system AND you have high levels of testing; then you can maintain a CMR of around 0.8-1.3% which is about where NZ, Denmark, Finland, Israel, Luxembourg and Norway are sitting. IF you have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, BUT don't manage the spread effectively OR you don't keep it out of the aged care system AND you have high levels of testing; then you can maintain a CMR of around 2.0-3.0% which is about where Australia, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Italy and Belgium are sitting. IF you DON'T have a good underlying health care system, particularly critical care, AND don't manage the spread effectively OR you don't keep it out of the aged care system AND you have reasonable levels of testing; then the real CMR is likely to be ~4% which is about where Russia (really), Bosnia and Bulgaria are sitting. I suspect India is in that category too. Drilling down on India. There is a huge disparity across the various States in India in terms of case numbers per 100k of population with some reporting as low as 200/100k through to 2,100/100k at the upper end with the average being 1,300/100k. Most other countries with decent test volumes are in the 3-6k/100k bracket with plenty well over 10k/100k. With only 20% of the population tested, it is likely the real number of infections is orders of magnitude higher. Even if we work on the higher 2,100/100k figure and extrapolate that across the entire country we go from 18M cases to 28M cases but if we use a median point of 3k/100k than that total rises to 41M cases. That tends to suggest (at a somewhat conservative 3%) the real death toll is somewhere between 850k and 1.2M, not the currently reported 200k but it will probably be 2 years before we get even a vaguely clearer picture and even that will still be under-reported.
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