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30-04-2008, 08:59 PM | #1 | ||
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Opec says oil could hit $200.
By Carola Hoyos in London, Financial Times, 28 Apr 2008. Opec's president on Monday warned oil prices could hit $200 a barrel and there would be little the cartel could do to help. The comments made by Chakib Khelil, Algeria's energy minister, came as oil prices hit a historic peak close to $120 a barrel, putting further pressure on global economies. His remarks suggest Algeria wants Opec to continue to resist calls by US and European leaders for the cartel to pump more oil to help ease prices. But Mr Khelil blamed record oil prices on the weak dollar and global political insecurity. He told El Moudjahid, Algeria's government newspaper: "I don't think that an increase in production would help lower prices, because there is a balance between supply and demand and the stocks of gasoline in the United States have recorded a surplus and are at their highest level for five years." He added: "The prices are high due to the recession in the United States and the economic crisis, which has touched several countries, a situation that has an effect on the value of the dollar. Each time the dollar falls 1 per cent, the price of the barrel rises by $4 and of course vice versa." Some US senators have pinned the blame for high oil prices directly on Opec and Saudi Arabia, its largest and most powerful member. In a letter to President George W.?Bush last week, they said Riyadh had cut its oil production by about 2m barrels a day over the past three years, even though oil prices had continued to rise. |
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30-04-2008, 09:23 PM | #2 | ||
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When you think about it, oil as a means of powering most forms of transport is very old technology.
Not knowing how much is down there, like anything, it will eventually run out. And when it is close to running out the price will go through the roof I guess. I guess we have it good compared to other countries in terms of cost per L and the price we pay for cars. But then again, this will help promote the research and development of other 'greener' power sources. I was thinking, a lot of transport is pretty slow and uses very little oil to get the job done, but what will power things like planes when and if oil runs out? |
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30-04-2008, 09:24 PM | #3 | |||
Cane Farmer
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I know a big chunk of the problem in Cairns, FNQ is the fact that our declared port depth is too shallow to allow the bigger tankers in (although this is not the case as the port is a alot deeper then declared) so due to the declared depth, and big tankers not coming in, more smaller tankers have to be bought it, thus increasing fuel costs to cover shipping.
Don't quote me on all this, I'll post up the email I recieved a while ago at work to back up what I've said there. But perhaps this could be the cause in many places?
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30-04-2008, 09:29 PM | #4 | ||
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I’m sure somebody understands it all, but to me, Oil is a given it’s not a mystery how much is needed day to day is it??
Like I am fairly sure the amount of oil nodded on a day to day is fairly F*&*ing constant so how the price can change day to day or there are supply fears that make it spike is beyond me, cause to me when a Oil rig gets taken out by a tidal wave that is a supply problem, not yeah a band of Hobo's in hi-luxes might target a oil pipeline in Afghanistan somtime in the next 2 weeks mabey perhaps. Let’s not get started on how the price at the pump changes daily, when the servo’s tanks only get filled once or twice a week, the price should be set on what was payed for that load of Fuel in there tanks not what the Imagery load of fuel they haven’t brought would cost, you don’t see milk prices changing on a Daly basis do ya, or Steel, Engine Oil, rubber, plastic Ect, Ect, Ect, odd how out of all products that in some way come back to oil Fuel is the only one that goes up and down Daily
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02-05-2008, 02:00 PM | #5 | |||
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06-06-2008, 11:32 AM | #6 | ||||
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06-06-2008, 09:23 PM | #7 | |||
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much the same as when a person buys an xwgt in the 90s for 20k and sellits today for 150k |
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06-06-2008, 10:39 PM | #8 | |||
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16-06-2008, 03:56 PM | #9 | |||
Pushrodosaurus Rex
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You DO NOT need a car, so you cant use that argument, And then the people who NEED fuel would not need to complain because demand pressure is down and oil becomes worth less. |
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30-04-2008, 10:18 PM | #10 | ||
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OIL like most other GLOBAL commodities is a global trade item open to global markets and is subject to whatever price it attracts at the time. That's why it moves the way it does. Because demand is so high and vital to world economies, they will pay to get their quota and even stock pile it.
It's the volatile times we are in that is causing the spikes. Like all commodities, the prices are fundamentally driven and artificially driven (ie manipulated) etc. and the fact that they are priced in $US doesn't help when the value of their currency is diving the way it is. When a paper dollar devalues so much, the real commodity must adjust to maintain its real value, so this is what the market does. There is certainly a very large portion of that price per barrel attributed to risk! and there are many things that could be done to ease the pressure. The US saying they're leaving IRAQ would likely see the price of OIL tumble back to around $US80/bbl. It's a complicated playing field. |
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30-04-2008, 11:06 PM | #11 | ||
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I am concerned with ramifications of associated “life” necessities, such as the increase costs of food.
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30-04-2008, 11:56 PM | #12 | ||
Marko
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[QUOTE=JPFS1]OIL like most other GLOBAL commodities is a global trade item open to global markets and is subject to whatever price it attracts at the time. That's why it moves the way it does. Because demand is so high and vital to world economies, they will pay to get their quota and even stock pile it.
It's the volatile times we are in that is causing the spikes. Like all commodities, the prices are fundamentally driven and artificially driven (ie manipulated) etc. and the fact that they are priced in $US doesn't help when the value of their currency is diving the way it is. When a paper dollar devalues so much, the real commodity must adjust to maintain its real value, so this is what the market does. I'd cop that arguement except - I buy my fuel with Australian dollars. The value of which has risen more than oil in percentage terms when compared to the U.S dollar so as far as I am concerned the cost per barrel in U.S dollars is negated by the rise in value of the Aussie dollar V's the U.S. Dollar. There is certainly a very large portion of that price per barrel attributed to risk! and there are many things that could be done to ease the pressure. The US saying they're leaving IRAQ would likely see the price of OIL tumble back to around $US80/bbl. Global demand does not change on a daily basis. The cost to find, pump, process and sell oil also does not change that quick. Oil purchases are made before it comes out of the ground, just like gas, coal etc etc etc. Ultimately there is no need to hammer the end user the way that the Fuel companies do. Your arguement would also justify the electricity companies changing the price of electricity with every single bill. Because the power stations are run on oil, gas and coal. It is indefencable for us to be so treated. The solution is first world governments getting together and demanding a stop to oil conglomerates acting the way they do. Secondly they need to put trade terms on multinationals coming into countries and setting thier own rules. It's a complicated playing field.[/QUOTE] If oil goes up in U.S dollars and the Aussie Dollar goes up the same by the percentage. Then fuel here should remain the same but it doesn't. ITS LIES ALL LIES I TELLS YA!
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23-05-2008, 10:11 AM | #13 | |||
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But while the ratio between the US and AUS dollar tips further into our favour then it buffers the rise in petrol prices, but it doesn't take car of it complety. Just pray the US economy doesn't bounce back too soon or petrol prices are going to be dearer than coke. If people want to blame someone for the rise in petrol/oil prices, blame the geologists, because they simply can not find more of the stuff. And when they do its harder and more expensive to get out. Usually the when prices go up so does the supply, well this time there isn't any more supply, so prices have been raised to try and suck some oil out of the wood work but it isn't appearing... |
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01-05-2008, 12:28 AM | #14 | ||
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G'day WAForce8
You are right and i agree. At the end of the day it's also about these companies profits all in the name of shareholders and CEO/MD's options, performance rights and holdings etc etc. You know as well as i do though, that the energy game is in an ever increasing sector of increasing costs. How much does it cost to contract a decent Rig and Crew per day for an onshore/offshore well these days compared to say 3-5 years ago? I know you know the answer, i'm pretty sure you do anyway. And then there's the Australia/Singapore link for imports of Crude into AUS also, we could go on couldn't we? ;) Cheers |
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01-05-2008, 01:29 AM | #15 | ||
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While it dosen't mean lower prices in the short term, the market will sort all this out.
It's not like we will rock up to a service station 25-30 years down the track, lift up the hose and there is nothing in there. As the price goes up, more and more people will drop out of the petrol market and look for alternatives, which will increase the investment and reduce the cost of these alternatives (economies of scale). Of course, what we don't know is what those alternatives will be. Probably a mixture of Hydrogen/Electric. That shift of demand will probably bring the price of fuel down, because by that stage the only people who would demand it would be people driving "old" cars. Probably outside the scope of this thread though. |
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01-05-2008, 01:25 AM | #16 | ||
Starter Motor
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Being contentious for a moment.
There is an underlying issue here. Not commonly understood is the fact that Energy and it's pricing is used to 'control' nations. Food supply and pricing is used to control individuals. There are about 8 or 9 major players that can dictate what we pay, who gets, and how much we spend. It is most concerning that those nations that have historically been the West's greatest enemies are now the controllers and suppliers of oil, gas, some food and even water and electricity. The UK has sold it's birth-right for a 'mess of pottage' i.e. sold of all our assets and manufacturing to foreign entities and now we cannot decide the price of a loaf of bread anymore. 'Green' 'Climate' 'Global' are all phrases that politicians and specially selected scientists have latched on to to dispossess us of our disposable income and to add to government coffers. This way the people get poorer and the governments get more of our cash to waste on frivolous agendas with no accountability to the tax payers. Eventually, and it's happening already in the UK, people are being pauperized and becoming stripped of independance and cash. The is a huge money crash coming - when it comes and cash becomes plastic or electronic your last form of privacy will have gone. The cost of fuel, food and energy will bring this about. Whatever the politicians tell you about being under control and inflation only 2.78% - just simply don't believe it - they have other agendas. Don't be surprised when Rev 6:5,6 comes about .".....I heard the third living creature say, "Come!" I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!" I'll end here - do some research - we've been warned for a few millennia what is to come.
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01-05-2008, 07:27 AM | #17 | ||
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Now I know I'm going to be flamed for this but didn't Gough Whitlam plan to nationalise the mining industry back in the 70's when it was worth nothing???
Now the interesting thing is that Australia actually produces more than enough oil to meet it's needs so to put it simply if Whitlam had succeeded we could be living in 2008 with sub $1 petrol and virtually no income tax or GST. Just think about how much profit mining companies in Australia make and imagine if that was in the hands of the Australian people. I hate to say it but the Arabs are smarter than us. The smartest thing they ever did was nationalise their oil industry. No they are able to offer no tax, build modern cities in the middle of the desert and hold he west firmly by the balls. What is the largest corporation in the world....Saudi Aramco....and it's 100% Government owned. What is the largest Russian company and the biggest natural gas exporter in the world...............Gazprom..........and guess what controlled by the Government. Am I the only one who thinks we are a stupid stupid syupid country to be gifted with such abundant resources and all we have to show for it is a few cents in tax per tonne and the people employed by the foreign corporations???? Oh well we have two strategies which we must move quickly to secure. 1) We must move quickly to secure our oil shale reserves. Once oil hits $200 it will start to become economical to extract them 2) We must move to secure our Antarctic territory. There are enourmous reserves in Antarctica yet to be tapped and we control half of Antarctica : |
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01-05-2008, 01:01 PM | #18 | ||
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What i find amazing for a country like ours is all the oil that is pumped out of the ground in the Cooper Basin & also off shore has no where to be refined here, so it gets shipped to Singapore to be refined then we buy it back of them. If you ever did a trip through the Cooper Basin you would be amazed just how many Oil Rigs are out there at any one time and also how many wells have been drilled, whether there successfull or not.
I just got my BA XR8 Ute back its been in the panel shop for nearly 11 months, i filled it up last night with BP Ultimate at $1.70 the tank cost $123.00, from memory it was just on $100 to fill up before my accident. Thats not bad profiting $23.00 in nearly 11 months. I choose to drive a modified V8 so i dont complain and i never have, but for the first time i realised why it is making things difficult for low income earning families. |
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01-05-2008, 01:55 PM | #19 | |||
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Many people keep expressing the view that Australia produces much of its own Crude, yes that correct, but the ironic thing is that because it's Light, Sweet, it attracts a higher market price. The other ironic things is that most of Australia refineries are setup to refine the cheaper Heavy Crude, so what happens is that we export at a premium to Singapore for them to refine, we then buy it back in, while we import the cheaper (by about $US5) heavy crude and refine that here. Also, at the end of the day, our government has no interest in reducing fuel prices... why would they when they are advantaged by huge revenues with their taxes on taxes etc? |
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01-05-2008, 03:51 PM | #20 | ||
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I would love to see Oil Barrel prices tracked in $AU against Aust Retail petrol prices (Capital City Average) on a monthly basis.
I hate the media saying Oil at a record price - and then showing us the USD price. I wanna know in $AU. the $AU is very strong compared to 4 years ago, from memory this may be as much as 25% stronger. The Crude oil prices may only be up the same %, meaning no change in $AU of Crude Barrel. Greg |
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01-05-2008, 04:14 PM | #21 | |||
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02-05-2008, 02:03 PM | #22 | |||
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You have to remember, 10 years ago crude oil was as low as $10 US a barrel. Now it is nearing $120 US a barrel, thats a 1200% increase. Where as the exchange rate increase is only about 80%. So unfortunately that blows your theory. The Australian public is very quick to assume we are being shafted. They blame the oil companies, the servo's etc... We ARE being shafted, but not by them... By the government. Remember that they charge both 10% GST (thats 15 cents at the moment per litre) plus the fuel excise at 39.5 cents per litre. People go bla bla it just comes out the ground, how can it be so expensive. How much do you think it costs to build an oil rig? They are massive and massively expensive. You then float it out to see, drill a mighty big hole...get nothing.. drill another...and another...and another etc.. get nothing.. then drill and bam you find some. You have to pay all those employees, all the costs and supplies then you have to have great big tanker ships as well (more HUGE money) and send it back to mainland. It has to be processed to STRICT guidelines, it has to be stored and theres more employees to be paid, more costs, more supplies. Then its sent by tanker (more money) to service stations who then also have to pay their own costs, their own employees, their own maintenance. It is not a cheap thing to make and supply yet we purchase water for 2-3x the price of fuel and whats the production costs on water?! Last edited by Need_a_V8; 02-05-2008 at 02:13 PM. |
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02-05-2008, 03:47 PM | #23 | |||
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But there aint enough here to 'blow my theory' .... yet. We would need to see if the Bowser price follows the $AU Crude price, or the $US crude price. |
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01-05-2008, 07:40 PM | #24 | ||
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Sleekism, that is right on. We dig and Pump it up ship it off and buy it back, Like what, we have got to be thick as 2 house bricks
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02-05-2008, 04:08 PM | #25 | ||
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Good post Need_a_V8
I'm sure many people don't recognise the costs involved in the oil&gas industry and it's not their fault. But it would go a long way in understanding the situation. I'm invested in a small Australian oil&gas company that has found what is believed to be the biggest onshore oil discovery in Australia. Its in the Cooper Basin, but as i explained before, this basin is going to cost them huge amounts of money to develop. Their resource is expected to exceed 120 million barrels, upto 30% is likely to be recoverable, it will cost them in excess of 300million to develop. Offshore fields are more expensive, then there's the growth in offshore LNG etc which is extremely high in development costs etc. here's a break down of petrol pricing in $Aus. AUS/USD = 0.93c (today) Crude = $US 112 (last night) Cost of 1L of Crude = 112/159 = US$ 0.704 1L of Crude in AUS$ = 75.7c Excise = 38.15c GST = 11.38c Petrol station margin ~ = 1.2c So total is $1.26 Aus dollars a litre. According to todays MotorMouth site, the av. price for fuel in Melbourne today = $1.389 That's a 12c margin back to the oil co. As you can see, at the moment, the government coffers must be laughing all the way to the bank when you consider they are receiving ~50c per litre in TAX. |
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11-05-2008, 10:28 PM | #26 | ||
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Oil leaps to new record above $US126
May 10, 2008 Crude oil rose above $US126 a barrel on Friday in New York to a record as the US dollar weakened against the euro, prompting investors to buy commodities as a hedge against the currency's decline. For a fifth day oil climbed to all-time highs as the euro strengthened on signs the European Central Bank will keep rates at a six-year high to cut inflation. Nigerian output fell to the lowest this decade in April because of a strike and attacks on oil installations. "Oil is a safe haven because of the weak dollar and how badly the financial sector has been doing,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. "There are also geopolitical concerns about places like Nigeria and Venezuela that are propping prices up.'' Crude oil for June delivery rose $US2.27, or 1.8%, to a record closing price of $US 125.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract surged to $US126.27 during the day, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. Prices are up 8.3% this week, the biggest weekly gain in more than a year. Futures have more than doubled in the past year. Brent crude oil for June settlement climbed $US2.56, or 2.1%, to close at a record $US125.40 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract touched $US125.90, the highest since trading began in 1988. Oil at $US200 is "possible if we have a continuing devaluation of the dollar with respect to other currencies,'' OPEC president Chakib Khelil said Thursday at a press conference in Washington. The US dollar has fallen 9.6% since September 18, when the Federal Reserve began cutting rates to ease financial-market strains and stave off a recession. "Fed policy is accommodating the rise in energy prices,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. "The Fed and federal government are putting more liquidity in people's pockets, which is being spent on expensive oil.'' Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti wrote in a report on May 6 that "the possibility of $US150-$US200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months.'' Murti first wrote of a "super spike'' in March 2005, predicting crude may trade between $US50 and $US105 a barrel through 2009. ``There's been a paradox, prices have surged over the last week while we've had bearish headlines,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA in New York. ``Clearly there's been a lot of fund buying on the back of Goldman's super-spike repot. They were right on the nose last time.'' The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, may meet before September to consider increasing output in an attempt to rein in record crude-oil prices, Libya's Shokri Ghanem said. "We would consider among other options the possibility of increasing output as a way to ensure market stability,'' Ghanem, who is the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp, said in a telephone interview from Tripoli. Nigerian Petroleum Minister of State H. Odein Ajumogobia said there are no plans for an additional OPEC meeting because oil supplies are adequate. OPEC kept its production target unchanged at its past three meetings. The group last increased its target on November 1. "OPEC loves high oil prices, but they also value an orderly market,'' said Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist, in Washington. "It would not surprise me if they meet soon to discuss these issues.''Crude oil rose above $US126 a barrel on Friday in New York to a record as the US dollar weakened against the euro, prompting investors to buy commodities as a hedge against the currency's decline. |
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12-05-2008, 05:19 PM | #27 | ||
Peter Car
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I read something the other day that believed the high oil prices are mostly because of speculators, who pop up every few weeks saying stuff like oil could reach $200 a barrel, a cyclone off the cost of Venezuela could cause lower supplies etc, and then that creates doubt and instability, which forces prices up, when there is really no reason for it to rise, because despite what some of the speculators are pushing there is no supply problems at the moment, there is plenty to go round, at least in the short term, not in the future. Yes oil should be higher than what its been in the past, but it seems to me OPEC are probably getting these speculators to bring up these minor issues to force the oil price up to make them richer.
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13-05-2008, 01:18 AM | #28 | |||
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I agree that the government is more to blame though.
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13-05-2008, 11:27 AM | #29 | |||
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My comment, "It's not their fault" is targeted at the average punter... Not the oil companies/sheeks etc. |
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12-05-2008, 10:21 PM | #30 | ||
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Petrol could hit $1.65 soon: analyst
17:52 AEST Mon May 12 2008. Prices could hit $1.65 as international demand for crude oil remains strong, an analyst says. The national average price for unleaded petrol was 146.2 cents a litre in the last week, new figures from the Australian Institute of Petroleum show. CommSec equities economist Savanth Sebastian warned it was only the beginning of an upward march. "Motorists will need to brace for further pain at the petrol bowser in the weeks ahead," Mr Sebastian said in his weekly petrol briefing. "The key Singapore unleaded petrol price has hit fresh highs over the past week, as demand in the Asian region remains strong. "If oil prices maintain current highs motorists can expect to pay a lot more at the petrol pump. "The national average price is on track to hit $1.50 a litre, with prices likely to lift as high as $1.65 a litre in the next fortnight." Brisbanites continue to pay the lowest capital city price in the country at 142.4 cents a litre. Motorists in Darwin are paying about 15 cents a litre more at 157 cents a litre. |
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