Quote:
Originally Posted by russellw
Italy, Spain and Colombia make an interesting comparison. They are all similarly sized at around 370M adults but that's where the similarity ends.
Spain and Italy both have more than 600 cases per 100k of population where Colombia has under 250.
Spain and Italy both have more than 70 deaths per 100k of population where Colombia has just 8.
Yes, there is a big discrepancy in testing; the former two countries having tested more than 13% of their adult populations and Colombia less than 2%.
While the lack of testing may well explain the differences in raw case numbers it doesn't explain the low mortality rate because it's not a case mortality rate but a population based one - although the CMR is much lower for Colombia at 3.4% compared to the >13% of the other two countries and more testing would only lower that further.
Climate perhaps?
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It seems hotter climate fair better. Which is what scientists originally stated.
Wasn't it that the virus can't survive for greater than 30 minutes in temperatures over 30 deg Celsius? And sun light pretty much kills the virus on surface? Which is why I find it astounding that the federal government is pressuring the states to have everything unlocked and back to BAU during this period. We are going into winter, it would be wise to wait a few weeks to see the impact. Our northern hemisphere friends are going into summer, so expect to see their numbers drop (if the assumption is right). US is a different kettle of fish, summer or winter they are stuffed.